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8%Year 3
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New Launch Prices Keep Going Up.
So Where Are the Better Entry Points Now?
You’ve seen the headlines — $4,000 psf launches, new cooling measures, longer holding periods and more supply entering the market.
But the bigger question isn’t simply whether prices will continue going up.
What Could Property Prices Look Like by 2040?
DBS’ long-term scenario projects property prices rising alongside household income, based on annual growth of 2%–3% through 2040.
If prices grow by 2%–3% annually, today’s “expensive” levels could look very different in 10–15 years. The key question is where buyers can still find a more sensible entry point today.
What we’ll break down
- Actual transactions, not asking prices
- What the latest rule changes really mean
- The post-launch projects buyers may have stopped watching
- What to watch as the market moves into Q4
- Thomson Reserve — worth entering, or worth waiting?
- How all of this affects your next property move
Your speakers — Jiaming & Joelle
Trusted ERA Speakers & Trainers — Bringing You a Q4 2026 Market Breakdown.
With 35+ years of combined real estate experience, Jiaming and Joelle are senior ERA leaders, speakers and trainers with expertise across private residential, new launches, project marketing and market analysis.
Their perspective goes beyond individual projects — connecting transaction trends, buyer behaviour, supply, policy changes and government measures to understand how the broader property market is moving.
Their industry presence also extends beyond ERA HQ, with media features in The Straits Times and EdgeProp, as well as Joelle’s involvement in ERA’s EmpowHER Council. In this session, they will take you beyond the headlines and break down what the numbers are really saying about Q4 2026, the next property cycle, and what buyers and homeowners should be watching before making their next move.
Is this you?
If one of these sounds like you, this seminar was designed to answer your question.
- “Prices have gone up so much. Shouldn’t I just wait for them to come down?”
- “Everyone keeps saying $4,000 psf is coming. Is that real, or just marketing?”
- “With a 4-year SSD now, what happens if I need to sell earlier than planned?”
- “I own private property. With the wait-out gone, is now the time to right-size?”
- “Thomson Reserve is launching soon. Do I go in at launch, or buy something already built nearby?”
- “I’m upgrading from HDB. New launch, resale condo or EC: which can I actually afford?”
$4,000 PSF — Is This Where the Market Is Really Heading?
A few years ago, $2,000+ psf for a mass-market condo already felt expensive. Today, new launches are pushing well beyond that level, while prime and city-fringe projects continue setting new price benchmarks.
The bigger question is no longer simply, “Are prices high?”
New-launch prices by 2040, at a 2% or 3% CAGR
Projection, not a forecast: each region’s 2025 benchmark compounded at 2% and 3% a year to 2040, the growth range DBS assumes in its “Singapore 2040” report. Rates, land, policy and supply are not modelled.
Three land records in four months sent a clear signal:
land prices are resetting higher across regions
Peck Hay RoadNewton · CCR · Jun 2026
$1,865
River Valley Green CCCR · Jun 2026
$1,730
Lorong PuntongSin Ming · RCR record · Sep 2026
$1,612
Dover DriveRCR · Mar 2026
$1,556
New Upper Changi RoadOCR record · Sep 2026
$1,537
Kallang CloseRCR · Apr 2026
$1,415
Bedok RiseOCR · Dec 2025
$1,330
Hougang CentralOCR · Nov 2025
$1,179
Thomson View en blocNow Thomson Reserve · Oct 2024
$1,178
Dairy Farm WalkOCR · Jan 2026
$962
Government Land Sales top bids and closing dates via Stacked Homes, EdgeProp and URA, Nov 2025 to Sep 2026. Thomson View collective sale: $810 million, awarded Oct 2024, including lease top-up and betterment charge. Lorong Puntong is a record for city-fringe (RCR) government land; New Upper Changi Road a record for the suburbs (OCR).
Construction Costs Have Climbed Sharply Since 2016
+69%Ready-Mixed Concrete2016 vs 2026
+48%Bulk Cement2016 vs 2026
+34%Steel Reinforcement Bars2016 vs 2026
7% increased to 9%GST RateHigher development input cost
The question we’ll answer on the night
But Is $4,000 PSF Really Where We’re Heading?
Are record land bids and rising construction costs locking in a higher price floor, or is there still room for the market to pause before the next wave of launches?
Reserve your seat02The new rules
4-year SSD. 15-month wait-out removed. New school rules. Why now?
The 15-month wait-out period is not needed anymore
BeforeSell private15-month waitBuy HDB
NowSell privateBuy HDB resale
“Within 1km” changes at 12 schools
Balloting now happens separately within each group
12Living within 1km no longer gives the same edge
40 → 60Larger schools may offer more Phase 2C places
See the 12 schools
ACS (Junior)ACS (Primary)CHIJ (Katong) PrimaryMethodist Girls’ (Primary)Nanyang PrimaryNgee Ann PrimaryPei Hwa Presbyterian PrimaryRaffles Girls’ PrimarySingapore Chinese Girls’ PrimarySt. Margaret’s (Primary)Tanjong Katong PrimaryTao Nan School
ABSD and the 4% stress test
| ABSD | 1st | 2nd | 3rd+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citizen | 0% | 20% | 30% |
| PR | 5% | 30% | 35% |
| Foreigner | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Bank test rate4%
SORA today~1.2%
Lower interest rates may reduce your monthly instalment, but your borrowing power is still limited by the 55% debt cap.
The question we’ll answer on the night
But What Are the Signals Really Telling Us?
Are these simply separate policy changes, or do they point to where Singapore’s property market may be heading next?
Reserve your seat03Reading the cycle
Where is the cycle leaning towards?
- SupplyLeans to buyers15,810 unsold homes
Buyers aren’t short of choice, and a big wave of completions is coming.
- Sales paceLeans to buyers5,038 sold Jan–Aug, down 34%
Demand follows launches; quiet months drop to a few hundred sales.
- Launch take-upMixedFrom 92% to 11% on launch
Well-priced launches sell fast. Pricier ones open up room to negotiate.
- Land pricesLeans to sellersRecords in every region
The next launches are priced off dearer land, which limits price cuts.
- PricesMixed+1.4% in the first half of 2026
Still rising, but cooling outside the prime districts.
- Rates and policyMixedSORA about 1.2%
Rates have stopped falling. Budget at the 4% test rate, not today’s.
New private home sales by month, Jan 2024 to Aug 2026
Each spike is a big launch weekend. 2026 is in gold.
05001,0001,5002,0002,500
The question we’ll answer on the night
So Which Way Is the Property Cycle Leaning?
With supply building and land prices at record highs, is this a window to act, or a reason to wait and watch the next few launches first?
Reserve your seat04Case study
Putting One of the Newest Launches to the Test
Thomson Reserve, District 20
Homes1,2686 blocks of 21 and 30 storeys
Land cost$1,178 psf ppr$810M collective sale, Oct 2024
Tenure99 yearsLeasehold
Expected TOP~2031Estimate; preview date and prices not yet announced
2-bed 56%3-bed 28%14%
Land
Bought before the 2026 records
$1,178 psf ppr, about 27% below Lorong Puntong’s $1,612 nearby.
Nearby prices
What buyers around it paid
Lentor launches $2,169–2,357 psf; resale nearby $1,800–2,287.
Resale competition
56% share one layout
716 two-bedroom owners may all sell around the same time.
Size
Mega project, same gains
1,000+ unit condos made 22.0% on average vs 21.6% for regular ones.
The question we’ll answer on the night
Will Thomson Reserve Be Priced Based on Its Own Land Cost — or the Land Next Door?
And once the price is out, is entering at launch still the better move, or will the resale market around it offer more value for the same budget?
Reserve your seat05Your alternatives
If new launch prices keep rising, what are your alternatives?
New launches cost 41–44% more than resale homes on a psf basis, but only 5–16% more than nearly new homes.
New Launch vs Nearly New vs Resale — Median PSF
CCR · prime
New launch
$3,082
Sub-sale (nearly new)5% below new launch
$2,922
Resale29% below new launch
$2,179
RCR · city fringe
New launch
$2,771
Sub-sale (nearly new)14% below new launch
$2,387
Resale29% below new launch
$1,956
OCR · suburbs
New launch
$2,256
Sub-sale (nearly new)6% below new launch
$2,130
Resale31% below new launch
$1,567
The question we’ll answer on the night
So Which Entry Point Actually Fits Your Numbers?
New launch, nearly new, resale or EC: which one gives you the best balance of price, risk and exit for your stage of life?
Reserve your seatFrom past attendees
What people took away
Back by popular demand
Hundreds joined us for our property seminar. Now, it’s your turn.
Spot the Next Property Cycle
Join our upcoming seminar as we break down the numbers, uncover potential opportunities and highlight the risks to watch, so you can make a more informed decision before buying, selling or upgrading.